By K.C. Mehaffey
May 14, 2025

Forecasters are predicting significant reductions in returns of sockeye, coho and steelhead to the Columbia Basin this year compared to 2024.

Although smaller runs of sockeye and coho account for the majority of the difference, the biggest concern is over the 102,000 fewer summer steelhead expected to come back to the basin this year.

Not including about 56,000 Columbia River chum, forecasters expect almost 1.9 million salmon and steelhead to return to the Columbia Basin this year, a drop of nearly 700,000 fish compared to the almost 2.6 million returns in 2024. Chum are excluded since last year's run is not yet reconstructed.

The losses would not be offset by a predicted increase of 71,000 Chinook in the outlook. The forecast is created each year by the U.S. v. Oregon Technical Advisory Committee (TAC).

The committee consists of staff from state, federal and Native American entities. The preseason forecast will be updated to allow fishery managers to adjust fishing seasons so they adhere to harvest constraints.

Salmon managers from Washington, Idaho, Oregon and the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission outlined TAC's expectations for this year's salmon and steelhead runs during an April 8 briefing for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

The forecast is not good news for steelhead enthusiasts as it predicts depressed numbers for the 10th consecutive year. If accurate, this year's returns will again be among the lowest on record. Summer steelhead returns to the Columbia River have failed to reach 1980 levels in five of the last nine years.

"We've really struggled in the region with summer steelhead," Charlene Hurst, manager of WDFW's Columbia River Division, told the Council. Summer steelhead enter the Columbia River from April through October, and most return from late June to mid-September.

A total of 55,600 A-index steelhead—including 19,000 wild fish—are forecast to return this year—less than half of last year's return of 121,579 steelhead. And just 11,800 B-index steelhead—with only 1,100 wild fish—are predicted to return, only about one-quarter of the 48,166 B-index steelhead returning last year.

A-index steelhead are smaller and younger compared to the larger B-index run, which are mostly bound for Idaho.

Hurst noted that the wild B-index run "continues to be on a long-term downward trajectory."

In Idaho, the steelhead are counted from July 1 through June 30 the following year. That's because the bulk of the run arrives in the fall and winter, Sarah Maher, Idaho Department of Fish and Game's Columbia River Program coordinator, told the Council.

There, too, steelhead numbers are expected to drop significantly.

The total forecast for steelhead returns to Lower Granite Dam in 2025 to 2026 is 25,790 steelhead, a little over one-third of the 85,152 steelhead that returned in the 2024 to 2025 return year. That includes a forecast for 10,270 wild steelhead, compared to 17,532 wild steelhead returning in 2024 to 2025.

The lower numbers of sockeye and coho predicted to come back this year isn't as concerning, partly because the drop doesn't appear to be part of a trend, but also because forecasting for these species isn't as accurate.

There's a lot of fluctuation in the sockeye returns as well.

The 761,682 sockeye that returned last year was a modern-day record, Hurst noted it was also significantly higher than last year's forecast of about 400,000 sockeye.

"So, we'll see what this year looks like," she said. The forecast is for 350,200 sockeye returns—less than half as many. But that would still be the third-best return in 10 years.

Snake River sockeye, which are endangered, are in a different situation, Maher noted.

In 2024, 937 hatchery fish and 84 wild fish returned. This year, 680 hatchery sockeye and 619 wild sockeye are forecast to come back, she said. Despite the drop in hatchery returns, "we're hoping to get a higher return overall," due to a better wild run.

Maher added that last year, IDFG did a trap-and-haul operation to ensure some successful returns. The operation has been necessary two of the past three years.

"That's due to some unseasonably high temperatures, and we just don't want those sockeye traveling an extra 400 miles to the Sawtooth Basin in a heat wave," she explained, adding, "That might be a more consistent management practice that we have to do in the future, depending on how temperatures in the water continue to change."

Coho returns are also tricky to predict, but a lot of work was done to improve the forecasting, Hurst said. Last year, 736,982 coho returned, and this year, 479,739 coho are predicted to come back. Hurst noted that there are many coho reintroduction programs in the Columbia Basin, and called the recent coho returns "a regional success story."

She also had good news to report on the forecast for spring and fall Chinook returns this year.

A total of 217,500 spring Chinook are forecast to come back to tributaries above and below Bonneville Dam this year—up from last year's 189,559 fish. And the 2025 forecast for fall Chinook is 717,400 fish—also an increase from the 669,505 fall Chinook that came back last year.

Roughly 38,000 summer Chinook are forecast to return this year, a slight drop from the 42,511 fish that returned in 2024.

Stuart Ellis, deputy manager of CRITFC's Fisheries Management Department, told the Council that the Columbia Basin tribes do not anticipate any commercial fishing in the spring, given run-size projections.

"In the summer and fall we expect the fisheries to be fairly similar to the last couple of years based on the preseason forecasts. This summer, the summer Chinook run may be small enough that there will be fairly limited commercial fishing but we do expect both summer and fall to have some commercial opportunities," he said.

Hurst added that the total returns are still well below the Council's goal to have 5 million adult salmon and steelhead return by this year.

The numbers also fall short of goals developed by the Columbia Basin Partnership Task Force—a NOAA Fisheries-led process that brought stakeholders together to develop a common vision for the basin.

Maher said the total number of Snake River salmon and steelhead returns have been fairly consistent for the past few years. This year, about 172,000 salmonids are expected to return, which is about 54 percent of the partnership's low-end goals, she said.

NewsData: Lower Returns for Sockeye, Coho, Steelhead Predicted in 2025